Top Of The League Or Extreme Heartache: What Will It Be?

It’s that time of the year again. The most overhyped bunch of players and manager in the Premiership visit the most undervalued lot at the Emirates for a game that stretches the boundaries of passion.

We can say all sorts of things for this one. The cautious ones might say the Tiny Totts have some good players and Arsenal will have to be close to their best to win. The optimistic fans will be confident that the visitors are just too mediocre when going away against the big sides to cause any serious problems. And there are plenty of thoughts in between.

I can understand and appreciate all the opinions but to me this game will be down to a few factors.

First and most important is the attitude with which Arsenal players come out on the pitch. If we see the same fighting spirit that we saw in the last two away games, Spuds will be in for a hard time. If we come out with the approach we had against WBA or Newcastle, this could turn into a disaster. The Tinies are certainly at least as good as West Brom or Newcastle.

Second will be the individual battles. Sagna will need to be on top of his game because he will be coming up against a quick opponent who has had a week’s rest and time to work on his tactics. Arsenal will also have to win the individual battles for the second ball because the Crouch – VdV axis will be the only other attacking option that Spuds have. Last year we did this really well and made them look like a harmless side.

Third factor, and this is the most unreliable one, is the referee. Based on this outstanding analysis on Untold Arsenal, we’ve done rather well in games when Phil Dowd has been in charge. My only concern is that he is a somewhat temperamental referee and not as consistent as we’d like. So a team might commit some fouls and he might let it go and then book the other team players for similar offences (just my opinion, no statistical evidence to back it up). He is also a ref who doesn’t mind showing red cards and I have a feeling we could see one tomorrow, probably from two yellows rather than a straight red. As long as he doesn’t unnecessarily screw one of our players it should be a good game.

Finally, a lot will depend on the tactics of the two managers. Will ‘Arry have the guts to play two strikers at Emirates in the 4-4-2 system that works so well for him? I seriously doubt it but if I were the Tiny Totts’ manager I’d throw all caution to the wind because their away record against the big sides is so abysmal it really can’t get any worse even with a spanking. On the flip side a positive result could make a big difference to the player and supporter morale. Let’s see what Twitchy has in store for us. Last year when he came with long balls and ten men behind the ball, Van Persie, Sagna, and Fabregas destroyed them. Even at home, against an Arsenal side missing 6-7 first choice players, the Tinies put ten men in defence but got a win on the counter.

I will be really surprised if they don’t defend in numbers and hit a plethora of long balls to Crouch or diagonal ones to their wingers. Using pace when Arsenal are attacking is their only real hope apart from a blunder from the ref or a set-piece.

As far as Arsenal are concerned, Wenger will have some selection headaches he must really be enjoying.

I expect Koscielny to come back into the line-up and I hope he plays alongside Djourou who has been in top form recently. We will need the aerial presence of the Swiss Centre Back. The Full-Backs and Keeper should keep their starting roles. I don’t think Gibbs has played enough after his injury to start him in such a game.

In the midfield Cesc and Song should be certainties. I hope Fabregas does better in this game than he has done in the last few games for club and country. I expect the third choice to be between Wilshere and Denilson and I’ll go with the Brazilian. Wilshere has played a lot and wasn’t fully fit during the week. In a high intensity game it’s better to go with a player who is fresh and fit.

The biggest decisions for Le Boss are in attack. If RvP is fully fit he should start but I’m not sure he is. In that case it would be best to start with Chamakh in a central role.

I’d also like to see Walcott on the right as it will give us a good threat against Assou-Ekotto who is error prone. I certainly don’t want to see Nasri on the right because that will leave us with two players who’ve just played 90 minutes for their country on the same wing as the opponents’ biggest threat.

On the left I think Rosicky will be a good choice because Arshavin has also played the full game for his country.

The team I’d like to see is,

Fabianksi – Sagna, Koscielny, Djourou, Clichy – Song, Cesc, Denilson – Walcott, Chamakh, Rosicky.

Arsenal could go top with a win and with Chelsea facing a tricky trip to Birmingham we could stay on top after the weekend, but I have a feeling this game will be a draw and the ref will play a big part in it.

Update: Since it’s derby day and many of the readers here are Johnny Foreigners like me,  I recommend these articles that present facts about the events of 1915, 1919, and earlier. In this article Tony highlights the suspicious promotion of the Totts in 1909 despite coming 7th in their league. In this one the bias of the media and Tiny propaganda is analyzed and rebuffed. For more authentic, well-researched Arsenal history pieces, in case you haven’t already done so, do check out the History of Arsenal FC blog by Tony Attwood of Untold fame.