Top Four? Try Top Six

I listened to Arsene Wenger’s penultimate ATVO Pre-Match Exclusive this morning hoping to find something different from the usual talking points that he hits: Arsenal are mentally strong, they played beautiful football, they played too many games in January, they deserve to win, he’s very upset, etc. etc. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit anything that made me take notice, with the exception of the sheer number of players with “injuries” at the moment which was digested in the opening few minutes.

But then the interview guy said something that made me notice, “Arsenal topped the mini-League” on goal difference. I thought that was funny, so I looked at the data and sure enough if you only count games against Man City, Man U, and Chelsea, Arsenal top the Mini-League with 10 points (shared with United) and +3 goal difference, Chelsea are in third with 9 points and Man City are dead last with 5 (-3 GD).

Early on this year I followed that exact same logic of only including who I thought would finish the season in the top four and it was the same 4 we have today. But pretty quickly it was pointed out to me that Tottenham should be included because they were playing really well. I included them and it changed the mini-league table largely because they took 7 points off those of us who were supposedly in the top.

As the season progressed another reader suggested that I include Liverpool because of their blistering end of season form. When I put their matches into the calculations, they topped the Mini-League and as you can see from the table above they could outright win with three points against Tottenham on Sunday.

Seeing their numbers against the top sides was an eye-opener and points to something I’ve alluded to in previous posts; the League is no longer just a top four and Arsenal need to beware of this threat.

In a sense it was always like that, the Tiny Totts nearly pipped Arsenal from fourth place back in Theirry’s last season, but the challenge now is much, much stronger. @GunnerArchitect sent me a spreadsheet on Twitter this morning that details the spending of clubs like Manchester City and the numbers are really amazing.

In the last three years, Man City have spent over £300m in player acquisitions. Whereas once it was fun to laugh at Chelsea and how they spend £15m on Bosingwa and let him rot on the bench, Manchester City make that look like child’s play. Adebayor, Roque Santa Cruz, and Robinho, are just three examples of players who were purchased at insane prices and when it didn’t work out, dumped by the curb with the other trash.

There’s no doubt then that City will be spending big but they aren’t the only ones. Roman Abramovich will certainly be looking for new blood this year, as evidenced by the fact he spent £75m on two guys in January. Manchester United, as long as they have Fergie, will look to strengthen their squad. Arsenal need to buy some players and will both be selling and buying, I suspect. And Liverpool have a large chunk of money from the Torres deal with which to replace some of their aging back line and possibly even their ineffective captain.

This marks five teams in my book who will be spending heavily this Summer in order to keep challenging for the title. Tottenham are a bit of an outlier in all this because I’m not sure that their owner will spend much now that they are out of Europe but what I am counting on is that the lack of European matches will keep them healthy and focused on the League.

Obviously, a lot can happen this Summer. If the folks in Sunday’s Arsenal Funeral Dirge get their way Arsene Wenger will be out the door and that would have a profound effect — as would selling Cesc Fabregas. Similarly, Spuds could be under a ton of pressure to sell off Bale and van der Vaart in order to enrich their owner some more. Mancity could prove again that money doesn’t equal brains and buy foolishly in the market. Chelsea could hope that John Terry’s Rascal Mobility Scooter can be held together for another season despite all evidence suggesting that it shouldn’t. And Manchester United could retire their four best players this season: Giggs, Scholes, Ferdinand, and Howard Webb.

But given the record that these six teams have had over the last five years I wouldn’t bet on any of them simply giving up. And that makes six teams who could legitimately challenge for four places.

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