Preview: Newcastle vs Birmingham City

Stephen Carr – cup winning captain. Proof that Newcastle United are cursed.

07.05.11 – Saturday – 3:00pm

Location: St James’

Early prospects: Potentially good.

Waffle: Newcastle arrive to this game looking to finally nail their Premier League status for at least one more season. A maximum point return from this game would make safety mathematical, on the proviso that neither Wigan or Blackpool manage to overhaul the best part of a 20 goal deficit in their final 3 games – the prospect of which doesn’t have us reaching for the Nytol to sleep, even with our visit to title hungry Chelsea still to be completed.  Still, it’s frightening to see how close we have came to getting dragged into the scrap – the points against Man Utd and Blackpool looking far more precious now than they first appeared.  Our form of 2 solitary wins since the 5th of January, no less than 14 league games ago, is relegation form any other season and we have the haplessness of those below us to thank for hiding our failings.  Divulging this argument – of our last 4 wins, 3 have came against the current bottom 3 and the other was away to today’s opponents Birmingham (who were at the time, by our calculations, in 14th place) – turn any 2 of those 4 into losses and we would currently be teetering on the edge of the relegation zone.  Having said this, the results are in the past now and we have to concentrate on making sure this dire run is somewhat remedied – and with a home fixture against a team we have already beaten comfortably this season we couldn’t ask for a better opportunity.

Our visitors today (Carling Cup holders no less) are similarly limping across the line, having only won twice in their last eight, drawing and losing 3 a piece in that time.  Although they are little closer to the dreaded dotted line than we are, Birmingham will surely see out another season in the top flight – despite not winning as many games as they would have liked in the league their ability to stop draws turning into losses has arguably been what has kept them out of trouble.  Indeed, only Fulham and Everton have drawn as many as Birmingham this season – 15 – of which 7 have come away from home for the Blues.  However, this ability to hold onto a point has dragged their away form out of the depths – their 2 away wins all season is joint worst in the Premier with 4 other clubs.

The Team: Suffering heavily from injuries to a small squad, Birmingham find themselves again in a very similar position to ourselves with 5 first team contenders sidelined.

Probable line-ups: Newcastle, nearly as you were (as we have no-one else).  Birmingham, missing top scorer Craig Gardner, expected to line up 4-4-2, although recently they have lined up in a 4-5-1.

Our preview for the away fixture pin pointed Birmingham’s heavy reliance of work rate but lack of creativity and goal scoring threat – which at the time was attempting to be remedied by the loan signings of David Bentley and Obafemi Martins.  Unfortunately for Birmingham this made little difference to their potency and they remain join lowest scorers in the League with 35.  Neither of the new faces have scored in the League since their respective arrivals, with Bentley providing only the one assist and Martins sole contribution being the winning goal in the Carling Cup final…probably worth the loan fee just for that – even if it was a tap in.  This lack of goal scoring ability was tempered by defensive solidarity, but since our last meeting Birmingham have conceded as most twice as many as they have scored (17 to 10), which hasn’t helped them in putting those vital last few points needed on the board.

Danger men: In the absence of top scorer Craig Gardner, the danger once again lies very much with one time Newcastle target, Seb Larsson.  Likely to be under large periods of pressure, Birmingham will be looking to take full advantage of every set piece situation to plunder goals, with Larsson’s precision delivery key to this.  Although not the quickest of wingers, Larsson has the intelligence and skill to work himself into good crossing and shooting positions, and his threat in front of goal – particularly from the edge of the area – is something to be wary of.

Selling point: Larsson delivers pin-point delivery from either side for Birmingham to return from 2 goals down against Sunderland earlier this season.

Tactical suggestions: In last week’s preview we observed Liverpool’s tactic of overloading one side (their right) against Birmingham’s left back position – and perhaps we should take some inspiration from this, not so much in attacking their left back position but in the supporting role the remainder of the team played in overloading the chosen area.  In a mirror image to Liverpool, our strength undoubtedly lies with our left flank – Enrique and Gutierrez linking up seamlessly to hold positions in the opposition’s final 3rd.  However, as has been evident of late (and clearly demonstrated in the Liverpool (A) key points) our attacks are regularly falling down at this stage – with little to no support coming from the remainder of midfield and  poorly positioned strikers meaning that our left side duo are isolated and often running into dead ends.  We should provide as much support to these two and be prepared to play a short, sharp passing game in this pocket of the pitch – which we are more than capable of doing – to create close quarters goal scoring opportunities.  Returning Peter Lovenkrands to his preferred left side of the front two would help no end in this as his strengths lie in short bursts into space (and not playing with his back to goal which we attempted last week).  Birmingham lack the blistering pace to swiftly counter attack, so we can feel fairly comfortable that applying pressure and committing numbers further up the pitch will not leave us dangerously vulnerable.  Although we are limited in team selection options there is no reason we can still not be resourceful tactically – an attitude the team management would do well to adopt.

Support, support, support:  Gutierrez and Enrique work the ball into the corner of the pitch as standard – offer them a way out and chances will be created.  Barton, take inspiration from Maxi Rodriguez’s hat-trick against the Blues – moving inside from his mirrored, left hand side, position.

Gut feeling: Fairly tight home win.