Pass Me The Bin / Bolton Preview

First some stats.  Before our first game of the season, as I was sitting in the pub waiting nervously for it all to kick-off I picked up a discarded News of the World from my table and flicked through the sports supplement.  It was a moment of weakness, something to distract me from my pre-season jitters, and I was quickly reminded why I usually don’t bother with these rags.  Some spiteful little hack giving his thoughts on the coming season had written off Arsenal in a passage that went something like “Arsenal will again pass, pass, pass, until their fans ask to be passed the sick bucket”. 
 
This bitchy, totally unecessary attack on my club stuck with me; it was one of those “Oh yeah, we’ll see…” moments that I think any Arsenal fan who engages with the media must have become used to in recent years.  It’s a argument based on one basic premise, that Arsenal like to pass the ball a lot.  And that’s true, but does it mean that we pass to the exclusion of shooting and creating scoring chances? 
 
The Opta stats from our opening two games tell the true story.  In those two matches we completed 971 passes, and had 35 shots on goal.  That’s the second highest number of passes (behind Manchester United), and the most shots of anyone in the league.  In a table showing passes per shot, we are 11th taking a shot every 27 passes.  That makes us more direct than the other members of last season’s top four United, Chelsea, and the Totts.  In fact the only ‘proper’ team more direct than us using this yardstick is Liverpool, and then only by a fraction.

Passes per Shot Table

Change that to the nubmer of passes per goal and Chelsea take the lead due to their freakish shot conversion, but we are 5th, streets ahead of United and the Totts, with a goal coming every 138 passes.  So is the hack right to suggest we pass it too much?  Or should we be more like Blackburn, with their 258 total passes, and a shot for every 15 of them.  You can decide for yourself. 

Passes per Shot Table

Preview

Anyway on to Bolton.  Walcott as we all know is out, and the club announced yesterday it would be four to six weeks without young Theo as he suffered worse damage to his ankle than first thought, but not as bad as they thought in between.  Van Persie is rated the same, four to six weeks, while Bendtner is three or four weeks off still according to the manager.  Nasri is back in contention for Bolton and will be included “if needed”.
 
In the same interview Wenger mentioned that Aaron ramsey is running again, and his recovery is following the “normal process” which all sounds quite positive.  He could be back to full training in November, but you’d think he is unlikely to figure much before the new year.  Keep going Aaron.

For all the talk about Owen Coyle changing Bolton’s style, they won’t be foolish enough to come to the Emirates and play an open attacking game.  They will pack five into midfield, close us down, try to stop us getting into any attacking rhythm.  When they do try to hit us though it will be down the flanks with Petrov, and the young Korean Chung-Yong Lee, who I like, trying to feed Kevin ‘Elbows’ Davies or the in form Elmander.

Our full backs will be key, and another good performance like the one at Blackburn from Almunia would go down extremely well indeed.  I’d expect to see us line up something like:

Almunia

Sagna – Koscielny – Vermaelen – Clichy

Cesc – Song – Diaby

Eboue – Chamakh – Arshavin

Eboue looks the most likely to replace Walcott, for his direct runs and link up play, and also with a slight consideration for the added defensive solidity he gives us down our right.  If only Arshavin could offer the same on the left.  The only other question would be the centre of defence, where Squillaci and Djourou are now ready to challenge for a spot.  At the moment though I expect Wenger to stick with the Koscielny-Vermaelen partnership, and see how they go.  So far it looks promising.

Prediction

An international hangover might play a part, but I have an unusual feeling of confidence that we won’t concede tomorrow … 2 – 0, Arshavin to score one