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While discussing the openness of the title race as predicted by Arsene, my thoughts were that the year end table will look like United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, City, and doesn’t matter after that. But I wanted to wait till the end of the transfer window before making my predictions for the season.

Now that we’ve seen a few games and a rather lacklustre transfer window is closed (thankfully), it’s time to put my neck on the line.

Broadly speaking, I expect the top three to remain the same as last year but not in that order. City, Tottenham and Liverpool will probably fight it out for the next three places although it will be a big challenge for Redknapp to balance the Premiership with the unchartered waters of the Champions League. Similarly, Roy Hodgson faces a big challenge as the club’s future is uncertain and some of his main players aren’t in the right frame of mind.

Let me take this club by club starting with our title rivals,

Chelsea: The reigning champions have lost five experienced players in the transfer window and replaced them with two. In terms of involvement in the League last season, Ballack had 26 starts and 6 substitute appearances. Carvalho 22 starts, Cole 14+12, Deco 14+5, and Belletti 4+7. That’s a lot of squad depth. They will need big contributions from Benayoun and Ramirez and will have to hope that their key players maintain their fitness. Essien can be a like a new signing for Chelsea!

The big positive for Chelsea is that they can defend really well, especially against the smaller sides. So even if they have some players missing they can always play a tight game and hope to nick a winner. Another advantage is that their key players have not had many injury concerns. But as we saw in the 08-09 season, if Drogba misses a large chunk of games they’ll fall just short.

I expect them to have some extremely dominant periods and some phases when they drop a lot of points. Second in the League is my prediction.

United: Contrary to popular belief I don’t think United are on their way down. I think Fergie understand the Englishness of the League better than anyone else and that will help them a lot. Berbatov looks like he will do much better this season and that should ease some burden of Rooney. United fans will also be hoping for more from Nani, Valencia, and the refs (their twelfth man, especially at home).

If they can keep Vidic and Ferdinand fit, United have a good chance of winning the league. If they have injury problems in defence they will be third. Prediction: first or third.

City: They have the squad for a title challenge but I’m not sure they have the manager. To be honest, I’m not completely convinced by their squad either because it’s loaded with defensive minded players. They have some creativity on the wings but when their most creative central player is Yaya Toure, it tells me they’ll struggle to break teams down away from home as we’ve already seen.

I think they’ll be fourth because of their squad that should help them see off the Spuds and Liverpool. They will only finish higher if one of the top three really make a mess of things.

Tiny Totts, Liverpool, and Aston Villa will have some good patches and will be tough games for the top teams but I don’t expect any of them to be serious title challengers.

That brings me to Arsenal.

I think we will toggle with United – first or third.

A lot will depend on injuries of course, but I think we’ve added good quality over the summer. I know some people will still talk about the Keeper but we made a mess of things in 07-08 when Almunia was hardly at fault. I think we can win with our present defence and Keeper but that will depend on how our midfield and attack works out.

I don’t think it makes any sense to separate defence, goalkeeping, midfield and attack when analyzing football games. So statements like, “we don’t have a defence to win the league” or “we can’t win the league with Almunia” sound really hollow. In a game like Cricket we can say batting and bowling are completely separate and the quality of one doesn’t normally affect the quality of the other. That is not the case in football.

I’ve always maintained that Arsenal defend well when we can play our football and attack well. It’s not that much about personnel in defence or between the sticks. Yes, those guys will make the occasional mistake and we will concede some stupid goals. We did that in 07-08, even in the early part when we were running away with the league. The difference was that in those days we had team that never accepted defeat and always found a way of coming from behind on rare days when we did go behind. Sadly, that didn’t last till the end of the season but that’s a topic for another day.

To me the fitness of Van Persie and Fabregas will be key this season. We need more than 30 league appearances from both. Once again, going back to 07-08, we had 32+4 appearances from Adebayor and 32 starts from Cesc. In 08-09 RvP had 24+4 while Cesc had 22, Last season Fabregas had 26+1 while Van Persie made 14+2 appearances. It’s not difficult to see the impact our best players have on the year end tally.

We will definitely benefit from the improved performances of Walcott, Nasri, and Arshavin. Also the arrival of Chamakh should add to our attacking strengths and will perhaps counter the absence of RvP to some extent. Even then, I’ve a feeling the fitness of Van Persie and Fabregas will make the difference between first and third.

Champions League and the Cups

I find it very hard to make predictions for the Cup ties and in many ways Champions League is a Cup despite its name.

A lot will depend on the draw. If we get some home games we should do well in the FA Cup. I don’t expect us to win the Carling Cup with our policy because many teams have invested so much that they desperately need something just so they can look in the mirror.

In the Champions League I expect we will have a real challenge if we draw United, Chelsea, Farca, or Madrid. We should get past all other teams including Bayern, although that could be a tight game.

Farca have Messi and with the system we play it’s tough to deal with a guy like him. Even if we manage to keep him quiet we might end up leaving space for others. Still with a fully fit first team I’d definitely enjoy a battle with the scumbags.

United, Chelsea and Real (now that they have the Dark Lord) will defend against us and stop us from playing. As I said before, once we can’t play the way we like our defensive issues are exacerbated. In Cup games I expect we will have a real challenge getting past these sides. That doesn’t mean we can’t do it. A lot will depend on the personnel available and the form on the day so it’s pointless to predict the results of Cup ties right now.

All in all, I think our best shot is at the Premier League title, second best would be the FA Cup or the Champions League depending on the draw.

As per the new regulations all the clubs have now announced their 25 player squads along with a long list of U-21 players who’ve been registered so that they are eligible to play in the Premier League just in case. You can see complete details of the squad lists and junior players of all the 20 clubs on the official site.

It’s interesting, although not surprising, to note that Chlesea have only given a 19 player list for the senior squad. Many clubs have not filled their quota of 25 senior players. Arsenal with 20, Villa 22, Blackburn 21, Blackpool 24, Bolton 24, Everton 21, Liverpool 21, United 24, Newcastle 23, Sunderland 24, and Wigan with 19 have some room to manoeuvre in the market in January or next summer.

In effect, only Birmingham, Fulham, City, Stoke, Tinies, West Brom, West Ham, and Wolves have taken up their full squad quota.

In such a case the U-21 players will clearly play a vital role as the season unfolds. Not surprisingly, Arsenal seem to have the strongest contingent of young players. I’ve not examined other squads in detail but a cursory glance showed that no other squad had the same level of proven talent at the youth level.

As expected Ramsey, Walcott, Gibbs, Vela, Frimpong, Wilshere, Szczesny and Traore are all part of the junior list, not to mention the likes of Nordtveit, Lansbury, Eastmond, JET, and many other talented youngsters who’ll probably form a big part of the Carling Cup squad.

I might be wrong as I don’t follow the youth football of other clubs but I don’t think any two or three clubs combined have such a strong youth contingent in terms of talent and top level experience.

Chelsea are really taking a huge gamble as their 19 player list is supplemented by the likes of Gael Kakuta, Daniel Sturridge, Jeffrey Bruma, and Borini. We can see the impact of letting the likes of Ballack, Deco, Belletti, Carvalho, and Cole leave with only Benayoun and Ramires coming in. They’ve also allowed youngsters like Di Santo, Scott Sinclair, and Miroslav Stoch to leave.

A couple of injuries in the same area and they could be really short, especially upfront. From a depth point of view I don’t think they have enough. What they do have is a solid track record of not having too many injuries in the same area and key players who have gone years without picking up long term injuries (Essien being the exception that proves the rule!). If it changes this year they will struggle to stay close to the top. Otherwise their key players will always make them strong contenders for any trophy.

United have named 24 players in their senior squad but that includes the perennially injured Hargreaves, past his prime Owen, unsettled Anderson, and completely unproven De Laet. In effect they have a 20 man squad.

They do have youngsters like Macheda, Obertan, Smalling, Bebe and Pogba but none of them is experienced or proven at the top level.

I think United have far better balance and depth in their squad when compared to Chelsea. I’d say they are on par with Arsenal in terms of strength in depth. If Berbatov can improve his performances this season and if the golden oldies stay fit they will be close to the top.

Surprise, surprise! City have taken up their quota of 25! I don’t have to mention the kind of depth they have. Any team that has a bench worth close to a hundred million pounds will not be short of players. I still don’t think they’ve a chance of winning the title but I’ll discuss that in detail in another article on predictions for the season. As far as strength in depth goes, City are probably top of the pile.

Liverpool have 21 senior players including the likes of Stephen Darby and Jay Spearing, while N’gog and Pachecho are part of the U-21 list. I’m not at all convinced they have the depth to compete for the title. Anyway, with Liverpool it’s all down to Gerrad and Torres and this season won’t be much different.

Finally, the Tiny Totts have also taken up their quota of 25. Their junior squad also contains players like Bale, Dos Santos, Danny Rose, Kyle Walker, and Sandro. In terms of numbers the Tinies are not so small but when we consider that these numbers include the likes of Bentley and Jenas, it does put their squad in perspective. I think Redknapp has collected plenty of players who are of his own ilk, just short of top level quality. What else can we expect from a f*ck*ng football manager who is not a wheeler-dealer

I think they have some depth but mostly in terms of numbers and not in terms of quality as we will see once their Champions League games start.

In conclusion, City have the most depth but Arsenal and United have the best equipped squads. Chelsea have a smaller but relatively stronger and well proven group. Liverpool look like they’ll struggle and the Tinies are in for a long grind. I do expect many different opinions on this so please feel free to share yours.

For the sake of quick reference you might find the following images useful. The first one has the senior squads of the six clubs I’ve considered and the second one has the list of junior players that I’ve compiled based on my discretion i.e. names I’ve heard of and not out on loan. I’ve not done much research on that so I might have missed someone but players like Traore, Cleverly, and Wellbeck have been left out on purpose. (The images are bigger and will be clearer if opened in a new window, limit on the blog width reduces the clarity.)

Our win at Blackburn kicked off a largely enjoyable weekend for all things Arsenal.  Hearing Fat Sam after the match trying to explain that Blackburn ‘deserved’ a point for the number of times they managed to hoof it up into our area was amusing.  The man clearly has a personal problem with Wenger,  despite his rather muddled denials.  Earlier in the week he gave this little gem:

I’m not fed up with Arsene. In fact I’m disappointed that Rafa Benitez has left Liverpool because it was a nice psychological challenge.  I always enjoy the psychic side of Premier League football.

I’m not sure what Benitez has to do with Wenger, except that both are foreign managers who have come in an taken the jobs at big clubs that Sam probably thinks he deserves.  Still, maybe he could use his psychic powers to picture where the Premier League would be now with men like him and Phil Brown in the top jobs instead.  Not enjoying the worldwide success that it does, that’s for sure.

Tony Pulis is another one who’s got his nose all out of joint this week, after Wenger’s comments about Stoke turning football in to rugby.  The Stoke manager has apparently sent letters of complaint to Arsenal and the FA, he said:

The club is desperately disappointed with the comments which Wenger has come out with … We think they are out of order and you don’t expect it from a person of Wenger’s esteem.  The club will deal with it in the right and proper manner.

Which seems to mean whining like a bitch to the FA.  I can almost see Pulis’ point, for the Arsenal manager to comment on a match between Stoke and Tottenham seems unnecessary, the link though is the referee on that day Chris Foy, who reffed our game on Saturday.  Pulis even accepted that it was just a plea for strong refereeing against Blackburn, so what’s his problem?

Completing the manager’s drive to lose friends and alienate people, old Red Nose responded to the non-story about Wenger’s criticism of Paul Scholes.  Quotes here if you care enough.

The rest of the weekend’s results were a mixed bag, Chelsea and United cruised through easy home games, while Liverpool laboured to overcome West Brom at Anfield.  The Totts provided though, losing at home to Wigan as they discovered just how hard it is to play in the Champions League midweek and keep up a challenge in the Premier League.  And City tripped up against Sunderland losing to a late Darren Bent penalty.

That leaves us sitting pretty in second ahead of United on goal difference, going in to a two-week international break.  There are two days of transfer window to entertain us before the interlull really takes hold though, and with Schwarzer again playing no part in Fulham’s match this weekend, and reports that he is still determined to get out of Craven Cottage, it looks like we will have a new keeper for the visit of Bolton on September 11th.

The latest talk is that Mark Hughes needs to sign a replacement before he lets Schwarzer go, and he has his beady little eyes on Shay Given.  Fine, I hope we won’t be forced to pay over the odds for the 37 year-old though, our existing £2m offer seems more than generous.

Less pleasant news emerged on Sunday evening though, as Young Guns revealed that Jack Wilshere was arrested in the early hours, apparently getting caught in a fracas involving an assault on a young woman.  Jack was released on bail, and there’s no suggestion yet that he was anything more than an unwitting bystander.  Without pre-judging anything though, it’s poor on his part that he should even be anywhere near such a situation.

And finally, the Carling Cup draw has thrown up an extremely interesting third round tie, with us making the short journey to White Hart Lane.  Wenger won’t worry about a little thing like North London bragging rights, and will stick out the young kids as usual, while ‘Arry will no doubt throw everything at us, for the potential DVD profits if nothing else.

To the frustration of many and the surprise of no-one, Arsenal remained tight-lipped over the Sebastien Squillaci deal until today.  It took until Wenger’s press conference this afternoon, four days after Sevilla announced the transfer on their offcial website, and after the player had said it was “almost impossible” to turn down Arsene Wenger, before the manager finally confirmed the signing.  I assume it was all part of our ongoing mission to occupy the moral high ground over transfer dealings that means we never announce any deals until everything has been signed and sealed, and verified by the various footballing bodies.  Anyway, Squillaci is now a confirmed Arsenal player.

This dignified silence is nothing new, it’s one of the things we have grown used to it over the course of Wenger’s reign.  It’s a mark of the manager’s class, and easily preferable to ‘Arry’s public wheeling and dealing from down the road.  It also allows us to laugh at Manchester United when they announce they’ve agreed a deal for Aaron Ramsey, before we nip in and sign him.  And when the shoe is on the other foot with Chris Smalling, well we have complete deniability.  No, we never wanted him anyway.

There’s been a familiar lack of progress, at least publicly, on the goalkeeping front as well, so that one is clearly going to be another test of our patience.  If there is a deal to be done, it looks as if it will go right to the wire, and will be complicated by the selling club needing a replacement lined up.  I was quite pleased when Begovic’s name popped up in relation to us, but he’s really one for the future so I don’t think he fits the bill for us now.  His signing would likely “kill” one of Manone or Szczezny, so wouldn’t be sanctioned by Wenger.  I’d much rather we went for the guy who’s keeping him out of the Stoke team, Thomas Sorensen. 

• Premier League experience, tick. 
• International, tick. 
• Tall, tick (6’5″). 
• Right age, tick (34)
• Available, tick (one year left on his Stoke contract, and a ready made replacement if they keep hold of Begovic).

It seems obvious to me; he’s better than Schwarzer, with a few less miles on the clock, but I seem to be a lone voice on that one.

Moving away from our transfer/non-transfer dealings then, the Totts rolled over Young Boys last night go qualify for the Champions League group stages for the first time in their history.  Cue, as Arseblog pointed out, rapturous celebrations and sickening media backslapping for achieving something that we take for granted every year.  The draw for the groups takes place at 17:00 today, and my only hope is that we don’t get any long away trips to Russia. Okay, I’d take Benfica, Basel and Zilina.  As for the Totts, I hope they get Inter Milan, Real Mardrid and Rubin Kazan.  Or maybe Shaktar Donetsk, so we can all cheer Eduardo on one more time.

More tomorrow, including reaction to that draw, and a preview of our first real test of the season against big bad Blackburn.  Are you scared?

I saw an article today that ‘revealed’ Arsene’s new contract was worth 6M pounds making him the highest earner at the club and the second highest earning manager in the Premiership.

Given the vitriolic nature of some doom mongers it won’t be a surprise if some gooners come up with ill-conceived rants against this. I for one truly believe that Wenger deserves his bumper salary and a lot more.

The argument against him is not difficult to understand. 5 years, no trophies. These four words capture the essence although you can be certain the misery brigade will find different ways of attacking the manager. No big signings, faith in useless players, no ambition, no tactical knowledge, and so on – over the years we have seen many such pearls of wisdom.

Some fans don’t understand what the club has achieved in the last five years. It’s not just about profits. It’s not just about financial stability. It’s not just about living within your means. It’s all of that and much, much more.

Five years ago, before the move to the Emirates, Arsenal were in the 100 odd million income group. This was roughly in the same ball park as the likes of Villa, Everton, Spuds, City, and others (We might have been a bit higher due to regular Champions League football even in those days). It was also a long way short of what United were making.

In the last five years, Arsenal have more than doubled their revenues. Revenue wise, we are now amongst the top 5-6 clubs in Europe. I’ve not checked the exact figures or position but I’m sure you get the point. This means we’ve left the pack far behind and established ourselves into the elite of European football. Performance wise we haven’t been bad either. This is also backed up by our ranking amongst the top seeds for the Champions League draw, which, let me remind you, is better than what the free-spending Madrid have achieved. That is a testament to our consistency at the highest level.

This is a staggering achievement, especially because it has come without any kind of financial doping by a generous benefactor or an unmanageable debt. To put this in perspective, think about Spuds, Everton, Liverpool and other clubs.

All of these clubs have been trying for a new stadium. So far no one else has even come close. People criticize the sponsorship deals Arsenal signed because these days we aren’t getting anything close to the amount other clubs are making from such deals. They fail to see that these deals allowed us to accomplish something almost everyone wants but no else has.

All these clubs have spent and spent and spent. They are desperate for the Champions League that we take for granted. They are trying to find a manager who can take them to the top four and keep them there. Once again something we’ve taken for granted, although for the last few years many a doomer has made a fool of himself by predicting that Arsenal will drop out of the top four because the others have spent big!

In short, what Wenger has achieved is this – Arsenal are amongst the top 8 clubs in Europe in terms of football and finances. We’re amongst the very few who are financially stable. We have a phenomenal youth system that is about to yield its first crop of world beaters and gives us a strong base for the future. We have a world class stadium that will generate revenues that will help us compete with the biggest clubs. All this while many others have put themselves in serious financial difficulties, haven’t caught up with Arsenal, and can only go backwards. And I haven’t even mentioned the fact that we play the best football in the Premiership.

In Wenger’s early days we competed with United who were far ahead of us in terms of financial strength, which obviously gave them a big advantage. Now we’ll be competing with the likes of United, Chelsea and City with a much stronger base. We cannot come close to the wealth that Chelsea or City owners have but there is a good chance that the new home grown regulations and financial fair play rules will limit their extravagance in the years to come.

If you can’t see the difficulties involved in reaching this stage and the monumental nature of the accomplishment then there isn’t much to discuss.

It’s ridiculous to compare Wenger to someone like Mourinho on a single parameter of trophies. In the last five years Arsenal couldn’t have paid for a manager like the Dark Lord who cannot win much without hundreds of millions in spending. We never had and still don’t have over a hundred million pounds to spend.

In fact, it’s ridiculous to judge any football manager on a single parameter of trophies. By that logic Redknapp should be a God at Portsmouth. The best way to judge a managers performance would be to see how far he has taken the club given the resources he had and whether he built a foundation for the future or not.

In that sense, apart from Fergie, I don’t think anyone else even comes close to Arsene. If you put it all together even Fergie hasn’t done better than Wenger. Others like Benitez, O’Neill, Redknapp, etc haven’t really succeeded. That doesn’t mean these guys are not good managers. On the contrary it just highlights that Wenger is really the Special One!

During the summer PHW said that Wenger was the best manager in the world and it’s good to see that the board have backed his words by unanimously giving Arsene a 20 percent salary hike. I hope he sticks around for a long time even after his present deal and we can all enjoy the fruits of his labour in years to come.

In a quick side note, I’m hoping the Champions League draw throws up something like this,

Barcelona Bayern, Real Madrid, Spuds, Rubin Kazan.

It will be some serious fun. Given their luck this might not happen but I’m sure the Tinies will give us enough laughs no matter who they end up with. As far as Arsenal are concerned I’m not too worried. Hopefully we will avoid the long away trips. We have 5 away League games immediately after the midweek Champions League games and these aren’t just trips to the likes of Blackpool or West Brom. We travel to Sunderland, Chelsea, City, Villa, and United. Is that just bad luck? I find that difficult to believe but a good Champions League draw will surely help.

Update: Sorry got a bit carried away there, Farca and Madrid can be in the same group!

On the eve of what could be the biggest day yet for Swiss football, our first (of hopefully a series) Picture Blog takes a peek into the state of Harry’s mind before the game.

Credits: Sample

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